tl;dr Most everything new to market fails, so predicting failure is a winning bet if looking for gains in social status or punditry credit. Bringing something to market are almost impossible odds.
Nailed it! The difference between reporting as a business (need regular product, shelf life is generally as long as it takes to read the product) versus thoughtful analysis.
I love the expression, "there was a time in the life of everything that works when it didn't work" - sums up the joys and tears of creating new things.
I think the Arena speech is very appropriate for what you describe!