Great piece. However you are confusing two things on your timeline. The iPod was announced in October of 2001. However the iTunes Music Store was not announced until April of 2003 coincident with the lunch of ITunes for Windows. Before that people used iTunes (or Music Match on Windows) to sideload the music they had already RIP’d onto their local hard drives. Which makes the rapid success of the iPod all the more remarkable.
Thank you. I add a "(2003)" to clarify. I don't think the specifics about timeline change anything about what I intended, especially considering that the explosion of the product wasn't until 4th gen and the Windows version and iTunes anyway.
When you apply this analysis within the context of LLMs, what do you see as "halfway measures" between the world we exist in today, and a world that's much more LLM-first? I'd love to read more about how you think operating systems or digital platforms will likely change as the cost of LLM inference becomes "too cheap to meter".
Also, do you think that as society becomes more interconnected, it's becoming a lot easier for "disruptors" to disrupt various existing status quos? Or is it more likely the case that we can just see the dynamics unfold in real time, and so it "feels" faster?
thank you! Let me think about writing about that topic.
I think for sure one thing as I alluded to is that the interconnectedness allows the back-and-forth to happen both faster and is visible by more people. For example, when the iPhone was launched most of the debate happened via much slower blogs and weekly national news and much even waited for actual reviews months later. Some think it has become nastier but I don't agree that's why I offered the examples from way back.
I think with everything being connected shrinks the timeline because so much of disruption is getting deployment. Modern technologies can be deployed very quickly. Things that are physical and/or require infrastructure will still take the time it takes to replace infrastructure which can be a long time.
Great piece. However you are confusing two things on your timeline. The iPod was announced in October of 2001. However the iTunes Music Store was not announced until April of 2003 coincident with the lunch of ITunes for Windows. Before that people used iTunes (or Music Match on Windows) to sideload the music they had already RIP’d onto their local hard drives. Which makes the rapid success of the iPod all the more remarkable.
Thank you. I add a "(2003)" to clarify. I don't think the specifics about timeline change anything about what I intended, especially considering that the explosion of the product wasn't until 4th gen and the Windows version and iTunes anyway.
I loved this post!
When you apply this analysis within the context of LLMs, what do you see as "halfway measures" between the world we exist in today, and a world that's much more LLM-first? I'd love to read more about how you think operating systems or digital platforms will likely change as the cost of LLM inference becomes "too cheap to meter".
Also, do you think that as society becomes more interconnected, it's becoming a lot easier for "disruptors" to disrupt various existing status quos? Or is it more likely the case that we can just see the dynamics unfold in real time, and so it "feels" faster?
thank you! Let me think about writing about that topic.
I think for sure one thing as I alluded to is that the interconnectedness allows the back-and-forth to happen both faster and is visible by more people. For example, when the iPhone was launched most of the debate happened via much slower blogs and weekly national news and much even waited for actual reviews months later. Some think it has become nastier but I don't agree that's why I offered the examples from way back.
I think with everything being connected shrinks the timeline because so much of disruption is getting deployment. Modern technologies can be deployed very quickly. Things that are physical and/or require infrastructure will still take the time it takes to replace infrastructure which can be a long time.